Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
May 2004
Table 4b Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2004 - Bow River Basin
(Natural Flows) |
Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2004 | Year to date | |||||||
Locations | Volume in dam3 |
Volume as a % of Average |
Probable Range as a % of Average |
Reasonable Minimum as % of Average |
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) | Recorded March-April 2004 Volume as a % of Average | Ranking (lowest to highest) | |
Bow River at Banff | 891,000* | 87 | 79-100 | 72 | 21/91 | 107** | 67/91 | |
Lake Minnewanka Inflow | 142,000* | 83 | 71-113 | 66 | 28/91 | 79** | 27/91 | |
Spray River near Banff | 281,000* | 82 | 70-100 | 68 | 16/91 | 121** | 78/91 | |
Kananaskis River | 319,000* | 83 | 69-106 | 66 | 19/91 | 97** | 46/91 | |
Bow River at Calgary | 1,937,000* | 86 | 69-101 | 64 | 23/91 | 89** | 31/91 | |
Elbow River | 151,000* | 77 | 59-101 | 53 | 31/91 | 80** | 18/91 | |
Highwood River | 417,000* | 74 | 46-105 | 43 | 32/91 | 55** | 19/91 |
*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically ** - Recorded 2004 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001 NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage. |
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