Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2004

Table 4b Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2004 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2004 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average
Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2004 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 891,000* 87 79-100 72 21/91 107** 67/91
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 142,000* 83 71-113 66 28/91 79** 27/91
Spray River near Banff 281,000* 82 70-100 68 16/91 121** 78/91
Kananaskis River 319,000* 83 69-106 66 19/91 97** 46/91
Bow River at Calgary 1,937,000* 86 69-101 64 23/91 89** 31/91
Elbow River 151,000* 77 59-101 53 31/91 80** 18/91
Highwood River 417,000* 74 46-105 43 32/91 55** 19/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** - Recorded 2004 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.


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