Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2004

Table 6b - Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2004 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2004 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2004 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Lake Abraham Inflow 1,830,000* 86 81-90 78 7/43** 142**** 23/30
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 930,000* 70 59-89 56 8/44*** 68**** 5/41
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 4,070,000* 76 68-92 64 15/91 65**** 20/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** Lake Abraham is compared to 30 years of data
*** Brazeau Reservoir is compared to 41 years of data
**** Recorded 2004 natural flows are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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