Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
May 2004
Table 6b - Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2004 - North Saskatchewan River Basin
(Natural Flows) |
Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2004 | Year to date | |||||||
Locations | Volume in dam3 | Volume as a % of Average | Probable Range as a % of Average |
Reasonable Minimum as % of Average |
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) | Recorded March-April 2004 Volume as a % of Average | Ranking (lowest to highest) | |
Lake Abraham Inflow | 1,830,000* | 86 | 81-90 | 78 | 7/43** | 142**** | 23/30 | |
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow | 930,000* | 70 | 59-89 | 56 | 8/44*** | 68**** | 5/41 | |
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton | 4,070,000* | 76 | 68-92 | 64 | 15/91 | 65**** | 20/91 |
*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically ** Lake Abraham is compared to 30 years of data Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001 NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage. |
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