Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2004

North Saskatchewan River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

Natural runoff volumes for the March to September 2004 period are forecast to be below-average to much-below-average for the Bighorn Reservoir, and much-below-average for the Brazeau Reservoir and the North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton (Table 6a). Current forecasts in the basin range from 70 to 90% of average. Current forecasted values for the March to September period for the North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton would rank 10th lowest in 91-years of record (1912-2001). The May 1 volume forecasts are similar to last month's at the Brazeau Reservoir and Edmonton, and 1% lower at the Bighorn Reservoir. Forecasts are 7 to 16% lower than volumes recorded over the same time period last year.

The first two months of the forecast period have been completed, with March-April 2004 recorded runoff volumes at Lake Abraham being above-average to much-above-average at 142% of average, while Edmonton and the Brazeau Reservoir recorded runoff which was much-below-average, at 65 and 68% of average, respectively. Recorded volume data is preliminary, due to ice effects, and is subject to change. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 6b.

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