Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2004

Table 3a - Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2004 - Oldman River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30, 2004
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-September 2003 Volume as a % of Average
St. Mary River 541,000* 74 60-102 52 19/91 71
Belly River 180,000 74 67-101 59 13/91 81
Waterton River 463,000 76 62-109 54 19/91 63
Oldman River near Brocket 808,000 74 59-112 46 23/91 70
Oldman River at Lethbridge 2,062,000 69 55-103 46 18/91 64

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

Click here to see the table containing the remaining forecast for the season along with the recorded volume to date

* - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share
Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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