Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2004

Red Deer River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

Natural runoff volumes for the March to September 2004 period are forecast to be below-average for the Red Deer River basin, ranging from 77 to 79% of average (Table 5a). The current forecasted volumes for the March to September 2004 period for the Red Deer River basin are 2% lower than last month's, and 19 to 21% lower than the volumes recorded over the same time period last year. April precipitation was very low in the upper basin, at approximately 40% of average. Current forecasted volume at Red Deer would rank 31st lowest in 91-years of record (1912-2001).

The first two months of the forecast period have been completed, with March-April 2004 recorded runoff volumes ranging from 49 to 73% of average, which is below-average to much-below-average. Recorded volume data is preliminary, due to ice effects, and is subject to change. Current volumes represent approximately 10% of the volumes forecasted. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 5b.

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