Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2005

Table 4b Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2005 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2005 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average
Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2005 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 971,000* 95 83-109 78 36/91 119** 83/91
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 157,000* 92 80-125 71 38/91 83** 32/91
Spray River near Banff 308,000* 89 79-110 77 31/91 136** 86/91
Kananaskis River 346,000* 90 81-111 76 32/91 108** 61/91
Bow River at Calgary 2,101,000* 93 77-112 70 36/91 105** 60/91
Elbow River 156,000* 79 66-107 60 33/91 97** 48/91
Highwood River 428,000* 76 62-107 54 32/91 77** 39/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2005 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** - Recorded 2005 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change
Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.


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