Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2005

Table 6b - Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2005 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2005 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2005 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Lake Abraham Inflow 1,962,000* 92 87-103 84 13/43** 164**** 30/30
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 1,181,000* 89 70-117 63 18/44*** 139**** 36/41
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 4,808,000* 90 72-105 67 38/91 96**** 71/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2005 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** Lake Abraham is compared to 30 years of data
*** Brazeau Reservoir is compared to 41 years of data
**** Recorded 2005 natural flows are preliminary and subject to change
Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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