Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2005

Red Deer River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

As of May 1, 2005, natural runoff volumes for the March to September 2005 period are forecast to be below average to average for the Red Deer River basin, at 87 to 88% of average (Table 5). The current forecasted volumes for the March to September 2005 period for the Red Deer River basin are 4 to 11% higher than the volumes recorded over the same time period last year. The May forecasts are 4 to 5% lower than last month's due to April precipitation in the upper basin being generally a quarter to a third of normal. Current forecasted volume at Red Deer would rank 43rd lowest in 91-years of record (1912-2001).

The first two months of the forecast period have been completed, with March-April 2005 recorded runoff volumes ranging from 111 to 122% of average, which is above average for this period. Recorded volume data is preliminary and is subject to change. Forecasts for May through September are for below average to average natural runoff volumes. This remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2005 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 5b.

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