Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2006

Table 5a - Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2006 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30, 2006
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-September 2005 Volume as a % of Average
Bow River at Banff 985,000 92 86-103 82 28/91 90
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 172,000 92 78-113 75 38/91 129
Spray River near Banff 347,000 95 84-113 81 35/91 107
Kananaskis River 389,000 95 89-112 81 40/91 113
Bow River at Calgary 2,260,000 93 81-108 76 35/91 111
Elbow River 201,000 92 75-117 70 48/91 143
Highwood River 528,000 84 68-114 57 38/91 197

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

Click here to see the table containing the remaining forecast for the season along with the recorded volume to date

Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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