Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2006

Table 5b Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2006 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2006 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2006 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 934,000* 91 85-103 81 27/91 107** 67/91
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 157,000* 92 76-114 73 38/91 101** 58/91
Spray River near Banff 321,000* 93 82-113 79 32/91 118** 73/91
Kananaskis River 363,000* 94 87-112 80 38/91 113** 69/91
Bow River at Calgary 2,084,000* 92 79-108 74 33/91 106** 63/91
Elbow River 178,000* 91 71-118 66 46/91 107** 65/91
Highwood River 483,000* 86 67-119 55 41/91 71** 36/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2006 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** - Recorded 2006 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca