Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2007

Bow River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

As of May 1, 2007, natural runoff volumes for the March to September 2007 period are forecast to be above average in the Bow River basin, except average in the Elbow and Highwood River basins (Table 5a). Current natural runoff volume forecasts range from 97 to 114% of average in the basin. Current forecasts have risen by 2 to 4% of average since the April 1 forecasts. The current forecasted volume for the Bow River at Calgary would rank 65th lowest in 91-years of record (1912-2001).

The first two months of the forecast period have been completed, with March-April 2007 recorded natural runoff volumes ranging from 102 to 122 % of average in the basin, except the Elbow River which was 87% of average. Natural runoff volumes were above to much above average at all forecast locations during March-April, except below average in the Elbow River. Recorded volume data is preliminary, and is subject to change. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2007 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 5b. Natural runoff volumes for the May to September 2007 period are forecast to be above average, except average for the Elbow and Highwood Rivers.

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