Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2007

Table 7b - Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2007 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2007 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of
Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2007 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Lake Abraham Inflow 2,231,000* 105 101-110 96 29/43** 130**** 23/30
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 1,430,000* 108 85-132 78 27/44*** 91**** 21/41
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 5,515,000* 103 88-116 78 53/91 161**** 77/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2007 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

 
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** Lake Abraham is compared to 30 years of data
*** Brazeau Reservoir is compared to 41 years of data
**** Recorded 2007 natural flows are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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