Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2007

April 2007 Precipitation

Much above normal precipitation was recorded in most plains areas south of Edmonton, although areas along the Saskatchewan border between Medicine Hat and Cold Lake recorded below to much below normal precipitation (Figure 1). In northern plains areas, precipitation was much above normal in the Peace River-Slave Lake-Lac La Biche-Fort McMurray area, normal to above normal to the northeast, below to much below normal to the northwest, and near normal in the Grande Prairie-Whitecourt area. In mountain and foothill areas of Alberta, precipitation was generally normal to above normal in the Bow River basin south of Banff, below normal in the Oldman River basin, and below to much below normal for the rest of the province north of Banff. April precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 2.


Winter Precipitation (November 1, 2006 to May 1, 2007)

Above to much above normal precipitation has been recorded on the northwest side of the province (High Level-Hinton), in most mountain areas, in the Cold Lake-Fort McMurray region, and in areas between Edmonton and Red Deer, Calgary and High River, and Medicine Hat and the Cypress Hills. Generally below normal to normal precipitation has been recorded for the rest of the province (Figure 3). Winter precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 4.


Fall Precipitation (September 1 to October 31, 2006)

Below to much below normal precipitation was recorded in most of the northern one-third of the province, the Medicine Hat-Brooks-Lethbridge area, Drumheller and in most mountain and foothill regions. Generally above to much above normal precipitation was recorded in the plains and some foothills areas of Central Alberta, and in the Cypress Hills (Figure 5). Fall precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 6.


Alberta Agriculture models soil moisture for non-mountainous, agricultural areas of Alberta. Soil moisture at the end of October 2006 is illustrated in Figure 7, which shows almost all of the southern half of the province ranges from normal to extremely high and most of the agricultural areas in northwestern Alberta range from below normal to extremely low.


Long-Lead Precipitation Outlook

Environment Canada's long-lead forecast for Alberta issued on May 1, 2007 for the May through July 2007 period is for below normal precipitation for all but southeast Alberta where normal to above normal precipitation is expected. Above normal temperatures are forecast for the majority of the province for the next three months, except normal temperatures in west central Alberta. Environment Canada's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html.


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) long-lead forecasts issued on May 17, 2007 for May through to the end of July 2007 is for an equal chance of above normal, normal, or below normal precipitation for southern Alberta and above normal temperatures. The NOAA reported May 10, 2007 that a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña conditions is possible during the next 2-3 months. NOAA's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/.


For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca