Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2008

April 2008 Precipitation

Much above normal precipitation was recorded in most of north central Alberta with the exception of an area south of Lac La Biche, which recorded below normal to normal precipitation. Precipitation in south central Alberta varied from below to much below normal in the west to above to much above normal in the east. Southern Alberta recorded mainly much below normal precipitation except for the Cypress Hills areas south of Medicine Hat, which recorded much above normal precipitation. In northernmost Alberta, the High Level area recorded much below normal to normal precipitation and the Fort Chipewyan area recorded normal to above normal precipitation. In the mountain and foothills of the province, most areas recorded below to much below normal precipitation, while some locations, near Banff and Jasper recorded normal to much above normal precipitation (Figure 1). April precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 2.
 


Winter Precipitation (November 1, 2007 to April 30, 2008)

Most of the province recorded below normal to normal precipitation, with the exceptions of the Cold Lake-Lloydminster and Cypress Hills areas, which recorded above normal precipitation, and most southern and central plains areas, which recorded much below normal precipitation. The mountain and foothills of the province generally recorded below normal to normal precipitation (Figure 3). Winter precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 4.


 

Fall Precipitation (September 1 to October 31, 2007)

Below to much below normal precipitation was recorded in most of the province (Figure 5). Above to much above normal precipitation was recorded in many mountain and foothill locations of the Banff-Pincher Creek area, in the Milk River-Cypress Hills area, and in the far north of the province that includes areas north of High Level and the Fort Chipewyan area. Some areas of the Upper Smoky and Athabasca River basins recorded normal to above normal precipitation. Fall precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 6.
 

A map of soil moisture in the province as estimated by Alberta Agriculture can be seen here .
 

Long-Lead Precipitation Outlook

Environment Canada's long-lead forecast for Alberta issued on May 1, 2008 for the May through July 2008 period is for below normal precipitation in southern half of the province and normal to above normal precipitation in the northern half. Temperatures for this period are forecast to be below normal for central Alberta, above normal in the northernmost part of Alberta and normal for the rest of northern Alberta and southern Alberta. Canada's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html.


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) long-lead forecasts issued on April 17, 2008 for May through to the end of July 2008 is for equal chances of below normal, normal, or above normal temperatures and precipitation occuring in southern Alberta. Equal chances of below normal, normal, or above normal precipitation are forecasted for the August through October 2008 period for southern Alberta. The NOAA reported April 17, 2008 that weak La Nina conditions are expected through May, June and July 2008, followed by significant uncertainty thereafter. NOAA's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/.
 


For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca