Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2009

Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2009 - Milk River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2009 Year to date
Locations Volume
in dam3
Volume as a
% of Median
Probable Range as a % of Median Potential Minimum as
% of Median
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2009 Volume as a % of Median Ranking (lowest to highest)
Milk River at
Western Crossing
27,500* 86 70-101 22 32/72** 72*** 28/72*
Milk River
at Milk River
44,400* 88 73-103 27 38/91 46*** 20/91
Milk River at
Eastern Crossing
50,300* 88 71-104 19 38/91 40*** 14/91

* NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2009 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** Western Crossing data is from 1931-2001

*** Recorded 2009 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Median is calculated for period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca