Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2010

Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2010 - Milk River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2010 Year to date
Locations Volume
in dam3
Volume as a
% of Median
Probable Range as a % of Median Potential Minimum as
% of Median
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2010 Volume as a % of Median Ranking (lowest to highest)
Milk River at
Western Crossing
24,600* 77 58-91 22 30/72** 64*** 24/70*
Milk River
at Milk River
40,000* 79 61-93 27 36/91 53*** 17/91
Milk River at
Eastern Crossing
44,700* 78 58-94 23 32/91 66*** 21/91

* NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2010 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** Western Crossing data is from 1931-2001

*** Recorded 2010 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Median is calculated for period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca