Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2011

Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2011 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2011 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2011 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 1,100,000* 108 101-123 87 66/91 98** 50/91
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 183,000* 107 95-122 84 54/91 52** 29/91
Spray River near Banff 369,000* 107 100-120 88 34/91 115** 69/91
Kananaskis River 417,000* 108 99-129 85 57/91 75** 8/91
Bow River at Calgary 2,372,000* 105 97-124 83 58/91 58** 12/91
Elbow River 196,000* 100 96-111 75 56/91 91** 49/91
Highwood River 598,000* 106 91-125 82 58/91 87** 46/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2011 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - Recorded 2011 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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