Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2011

Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2011 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30, 2011
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) March-September 2010 Volume as a % of Average
Lake Abraham Inflow 2,046,000 95 90-106 86 11/30* 86
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 1,405,000 98 83-118 72 21/41** 82
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 5,690,000 97 85-115 74 47/91 84


* Lake Abraham is compared to 30 years of data
** Brazeau Reservoir is compared to 41 years of data

Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the potential minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca