Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
May 2011
Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2011 - North Saskatchewan River Basin
(Natural Flows) |
Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2011 | Year to date | |||||||
Locations | Volume in dam3 | Volume as a % of Average | Probable Range as a % of Average |
Potential Minimum as % of Average |
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) | Recorded March-April 2011 Volume as a % of Average | Ranking (lowest to highest) | |
Lake Abraham Inflow | 1,955,000* | 92 | 87-103 | 83 | 12/32** | 95**** | 15/30 | |
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow | 1,352,000* | 94 | 79-114 | 68 | 23/44*** | 51**** | 1/41 | |
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton | 5,244,000* | 89 | 76-107 | 70 | 47/91 | 33**** | 13/91 |
*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2011 forecast minus the recorded volume to date  
**** Recorded 2011 natural flows are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001 NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage. |
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