Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2011

Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2011 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2011 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2011 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Lake Abraham Inflow 1,955,000* 92 87-103 83 12/32** 95**** 15/30
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 1,352,000* 94 79-114 68 23/44*** 51**** 1/41
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 5,244,000* 89 76-107 70 47/91 33**** 13/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2011 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** Lake Abraham is compared to 30 years of data
*** Brazeau Reservoir is compared to 41 years of data

**** Recorded 2011 natural flows are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca