Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
May 2011
Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2011 - Red Deer River Basin
(Natural Flows) |
Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2011 | Year to date | |||||||
Locations | Volume in dam3 | Volume as a % of Average | Probable Range as a % of Average | Potential Minimum as % of Average | Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) | Recorded March-April 2011 Volume as a % of Average | Ranking (lowest to highest) | |
Red Deer River at Dickson Dam |
832,000* | 100 | 78-134 | 70 | 56/91 | 105** | 59/91 | |
Red Deer River at Red Deer |
966,000* | 88 | 61-114 | 51 | 48/91 | 135** | 68/91 |
*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2011 forecast minus the recorded volume to date ** Recorded 2011 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001 NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage. |
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