Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
May 2012
Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2012 - Bow River Basin
(Natural Flows) |
Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2012 | Year to date | |||||||
Locations | Volume in dam3 |
Volume as a % of Average |
Probable Range as a % of Average |
Potential Minimum as % of Average |
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) | Recorded March-April 2012 Volume as a % of Average | Ranking (lowest to highest) | |
Bow River at Banff | 1,096,000* | 107 | 103-109 | 92 | 65/91 | 109** | 69/91 | |
Lake Minnewanka Inflow | 206,000* | 120 | 104-124 | 83 | 73/91 | 144** | 85/91 | |
Spray River near Banff | 365,000* | 106 | 94-116 | 81 | 65/91 | 103** | 55/91 | |
Kananaskis River | 384,000* | 100 | 86-133 | 77 | 44/91 | 124** | 79/91 | |
Bow River at Calgary | 2,368,000* | 105 | 100-110 | 86 | 57/91 | 105** | 57/91 | |
Elbow River | 190,000* | 97 | 75-105 | 68 | 54/91 | 107** | 65/91 | |
Highwood River | 590,000* | 105 | 83-119 | 73 | 57/91 | 112** | 66/91 |
*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2012 forecast minus the recorded volume to date ** - Recorded 2012 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001 NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage. |
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