Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
May 2012
Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2012 - Milk River Basin
(Natural Flows) |
Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2012 | Year to date | |||||||
Locations |
Volume in dam3 |
Volume as a % of Median |
Probable Range as a % of Median |
Potential Minimum as % of Median |
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) | Recorded March-April 2012 Volume as a % of Median | Ranking (lowest to highest) | |
Milk River at Western Crossing |
31,600* | 99 | 76-125 | 23 | 36/72** | 139*** | 48/70* | |
Milk River at Milk River |
50,600* | 100 | 77-121 | 27 | 47/91 | 113*** | 54/91 | |
Milk River at Eastern Crossing |
58,200* | 102 | 76-125 | 23 | 47/91 | 107*** | 48/91 |
* NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2012 forecast minus the recorded volume to date ** Western Crossing data is from 1931-2001 *** Recorded 2012 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Median is calculated for period 1912 to 2001 NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage. |
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