Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2012

Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2012 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2012 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2012 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Lake Abraham Inflow 2,219,000* 104 99-108 96 27/32** 146**** 29/30
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 1,404,000* 106 87-121 76 25/41*** 100**** 21/41
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 6,007,000* 112 97-124 89 68/91 86**** 31/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2012 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** Lake Abraham is compared to 30 years of data
*** Brazeau Reservoir is compared to 41 years of data

**** Recorded 2012 natural flows are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca