Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2013

Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2013 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2013 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2013 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 946,000* 99 95-103 91 35/99 111** 78/99
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 160,000* 98 87-115 78 42/99 96** 52/99
Spray River near Banff 342,000* 102 94-110 87 46/99 94** 57/99
Kananaskis River 364,000* 102 91-115 81 42/99 74** 24/99
Bow River at Calgary 2,148,000* 100 95-106 90 44/99 102** 57/99
Elbow River 159,000* 87 75-100 64 38/99 102** 46/99
Highwood River 450,000* 89 71-107 55 39/99 95** 41/99

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2013 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - Recorded 2013 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the March to September 30 period from 1981-2009

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca