Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2013

Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2013 - Milk River Basin (Natural Flows)


Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2013 Year to date
Locations Volume
in dam3 		Volume as a
% of Median 		Probable Range as a % of Median Potential Minimum as
% of Median 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2013 Volume as a % of Median Ranking (lowest to highest)
Milk River at
Western Crossing 		24,200* 104 84-127 69 37/98 98** 38/98
Milk River
at Milk River 		35,100* 104 70-100 56 31/98 66** 30/98
Milk River at
Eastern Crossing 		49,200* 91 65-118 41 35/98 52** 23/98

* NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2013 forecast minus the recorded volume to date


** Recorded 2013 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Median is calculated for period 1981 to 2008

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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