Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
May 2014
Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2014 - Bow River Basin
(Natural Flows) |
Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2014 | Year to date | |||||||
Locations | Volume in dam3 |
Volume as a % of Average |
Probable Range as a % of Average |
Potential Minimum as % of Average |
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) | Recorded March 2014 Volume as a % of Average | Ranking (lowest to highest) | |
Bow River at Banff | 1,000,000* | 104 | 100-109 | 97 | 47/99 | 103** | 66/99 | |
Lake Minnewanka Inflow | 174,000* | 107 | 96-123 | 86 | 53/99 | 108** | 69/99 | |
Spray River near Banff | 372,000* | 111 | 103-119 | 95 | 63/99 | 76** | 25/99 | |
Kananaskis River | 403,000* | 113 | 102-125 | 92 | 59/99 | 111** | 75/99 | |
Bow River at Calgary | 2,327,000* | 109 | 103-114 | 99 | 59/99 | 111** | 75/99 | |
Elbow River | 192,000* | 106 | 104-116 | 99 | 59/99 | 146** | 92/99 | |
Highwood River | 540,000* | 107 | 104-117 | 97 | 56/99 | 144** | 73/99 |
*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2014 forecast minus the recorded volume to date ** - Recorded 2014 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the March to September 30 period from 1981-2009 NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage. |
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