Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2014

Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2014 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2014 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average
Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of Average
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March 2014 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 1,000,000* 104 100-109 97 47/99 103** 66/99
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 174,000* 107 96-123 86 53/99 108** 69/99
Spray River near Banff 372,000* 111 103-119 95 63/99 76** 25/99
Kananaskis River 403,000* 113 102-125 92 59/99 111** 75/99
Bow River at Calgary 2,327,000* 109 103-114 99 59/99 111** 75/99
Elbow River 192,000* 106 104-116 99 59/99 146** 92/99
Highwood River 540,000* 107 104-117 97 56/99 144** 73/99

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2014 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - Recorded 2014 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the March to September 30 period from 1981-2009

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.


For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca