Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2015

Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2015 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2015 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2015 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Lake Abraham Inflow 1,929,000* 93 89-100 84 27/100 90** 39/100
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 1,258,000* 88 69-109 53 33/100 105** 50/100
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 4,440,000* 90 82-98 75 28/100 98** 60/100

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2015 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** Recorded 2015 natural flows are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period 1981 to 2010

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca