Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
May 2015
Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2015 - Oldman River Basin
(Natural Flows) |
Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2015 | Year to date | |||||||
Locations | Volume in dam3 | Volume as a % of Average | Probable Range as a % of Average | Reasonable Minimum as % of Average | Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) | Recorded March-April 2015 Volume as a % of Average | Ranking (lowest to highest) | |
St. Mary River | 505,000** | 85 | 75-95 | 66 | 22/99 | 181*** | 92/99 | |
Belly River | 171,000* | 82 | 94-110 | 88 | 19/99 | 166*** | 96/99 | |
Waterton River | 394,000* | 80 | 70-90 | 61 | 19/99 | 186*** | 93/99 | |
Oldman River near Brocket | 667,000* | 77 | 65-104 | 54 | 24/99 | 204*** | 95/99 | |
Oldman River at Lethbridge | 1,858,000* | 74 | 61-88 | 50 | 31/99 | 168*** | 85/99 |
*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2015 forecast minus the recorded volume to date ** - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share*** - Recorded 2015 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period 1981 to 2009 NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage. |
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