Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
May 2016
Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2016 - Milk River Basin
(Natural Flows) |
Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2016 | Year to date | |||||||
Locations |
Volume in dam3 |
Volume as a % of Median |
Probable Range as a % of Median |
Potential Minimum as % of Median |
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) | Recorded March-April 2016 Volume as a % of Median | Ranking (lowest to highest) | |
Milk River at Western Crossing |
16,800* | 72 | 25-67 | 9 | 9/98 | 35** | 2/98 | |
Milk River at Milk River |
24,100* | 71 | 38-148 | 8 | 20/98 | 28** | 1/98 | |
Milk River at Eastern Crossing |
30,000* | 56 | 29-82 | 5 | 20/98 | 40** | 3/98 |
* NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2016 forecast minus the recorded volume to date ** Recorded 2016 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Median is calculated for period 1981 to 2008 NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage. |
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