Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
May 2016
Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2016 - North Saskatchewan River Basin
(Natural Flows) |
Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2016 | Year to date | |||||||
Locations | Volume in dam3 | Volume as a % of Average | Probable Range as a % of Average |
Potential Minimum as % of Average |
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) | Recorded March-April 2016 Volume as a % of Average | Ranking (lowest to highest) | |
Lake Abraham Inflow | 1,766,000* | 85 | 81-92 | 76 | 16/100 | 161** | 89/100 | |
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow | 1,013,000* | 71 | 58-84 | 47 | 11/100 | 70** | 14/100 | |
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton | 3,758,000* | 76 | 68-84 | 61 | 8/100 | 136** | 89/100 |
*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2016 forecast minus the recorded volume to date   Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period 1981 to 2010 NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage. |
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