Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2016

Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2016 - North Saskatchewan River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2016 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2016 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Lake Abraham Inflow 1,766,000* 85 81-92 76 16/100 161** 89/100
Brazeau Reservoir Inflow 1,013,000* 71 58-84 47 11/100 70** 14/100
North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton 3,758,000* 76 68-84 61 8/100 136** 89/100

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2016 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** Recorded 2016 natural flows are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period 1981 to 2010

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca