Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2017

Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2017 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2017 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2017 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 1,170,000* 122 118-127 114 81/99 110** 77/99
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 193,000* 118 108-135 98 69/99 103** 62/99
Spray River near Banff 380,000* 113 105-121 98 70/99 87** 47/99
Kananaskis River 380,000* 107 95-119 86 48/99 97** 63/99
Bow River at Calgary 2,470,000* 116 110-121 105 72/99 131** 93/99
Elbow River 208,000* 114 108-121 102 63/99 177** 95/99
Highwood River 548,000* 108 101-116 94 56/99 131** 93/99

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2017 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - Recorded 2017 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the March to September 30 period from 1981-2009

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca