Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

November 2005

October 2005 Precipitation

Most of the northern half of Alberta, and the Rocky Mountain House-Jasper area recorded much below normal precipitation. The Calgary-High River area recorded below normal precipitation. The remainder of the province, including most southern mountain and foothill areas, recorded mainly above normal to much above normal precipitation (Figure 1). October precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 2.
 

Fall Precipitation (September 1 to November 1, 2005)

Much below normal precipitation was recorded in most of the northern half of the province. Generally above normal to much above normal precipitation was recorded in the southern half of the province, but below normal to normal precipitation was measured in much of the area between Edmonton, Wainwright and Drumheller (Figure 3). Fall precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 4.
 

Long-Lead Precipitation Outlook

Environment Canada's long-lead forecast for Alberta issued on November 1, 2005 for the November 2005 through January 2006 period is for above normal precipitation in northwestern and west central Alberta and normal precipitation for the rest of the province, except below normal in a small Lethbridge - Milk River area. Above normal temperatures are expected for Alberta for the next three months. Environment Canada's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) long-lead forecasts issued on October 20, 2005 for November 2005 through to the end of January 2006 is for an equal chance of above normal, normal, or below normal precipitation for southern Alberta, and above normal temperatures. The NOAA reported last month that ENSO neutral conditions (no El Nino or La Nina) are expected for the next three to six months. NOAA's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca