Water Supply Outlook November 2013
Updated: November 6, 2013
Recorded natural runoff volumes from March to September 2013
Natural runoff volumes from March to September 2013 were generally below average in the Milk River basin, average to above average in the Oldman River and North Saskatchewan River basins. Due to the June flood in Southern Alberta, several key streamflow gauges were down in the Bow River and Red Deer River basins and the natural runoff volumes for these two basins are not reported in this outlook.
Natural runoff volumes recorded from March to September 2013 for the rivers in the Oldman River basin ranked from 27 to 83th highest in 99 years of record. The rivers in the North Saskatchewan River basin ranked 59 to 86th highest in 100 years of record. The rivers in the Milk River basin ranked 19 to 29th highest in 98 years of record.
The average difference between forecast and recorded natural volumes were 16% for the Oldman River and Milk River basins and 19% for the North Saskatchewan River basin.
Milk River basin- March - September recorded volumes slightly below average for the Milk River at Western Crossing and below average for the Milk River at Milk River and Milk River at Eastern Crossing.
- Six months forecasts (January to May and August) issued for 3 locations were on average, accurate within 16%. Runoff was below average.
- March - September recorded volumes above average for the St. Mary River, Belly River and Oldman River except for the Waterton River which was slightly below average.
- Five months forecasts (February to May and August) issued for 5 locations were on average, accurate within 16%. Runoff was generally above average except for the Waterton River.
- March - September recorded volumes above average for Lake Abraham inflow, Brazeau Reservoir inflow and North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton.
- Five months forecasts (February to May and August) issued for 3 locations were on average, accurate within 19%. Runoff was above average.
Note: The recorded 2013 natural flow volumes are preliminary and subject to change.
Check our Forecaster's Comments for updated information regarding runoff conditions.
Precipitation
Contoured maps of precipitation amounts and as a percent of normal for the past month and for current and recent seasons are available here. Maps of precipitation amounts for the most recent day, week and month to date are available here.
Soil Moisture
Alberta Agriculture models soil moisture for non-mountainous, agricultural areas of Alberta. Modelled soil moisture compared to average as of October 29, 2013 is available here.
Long Lead Precipitation Outlooks
Environment Canada (issued on October 31, 2013): temperature and precipitation for the November 2013 through January 2014 period:
- normal precipitation in central and southern Alberta. Above normal precipitation in east central Alberta.
- below normal temperatures in central and southern Alberta.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (issued on October 17, 2013): normal temperatures and slightly above normal precipitation for southern Alberta for November 2013 through January 2014.
Climate indicators: The NOAA reported on October 10, 2013 that ENSO-neutral conditions are expected into the spring of 2014.
Note that forecasting weather for such a long time period into the future is very difficult, and so the historical accuracy has been variable, dependent on location and time period, and is often low, more so for precipitation than temperature. Environment Canada provides an assessment of their forecast method's historical accuracy on their website.
Reservoir storage
Water storage volumes in the major irrigation and hydroelectric reservoirs of the Milk, Oldman, Bow, Red Deer North Saskatchewan, and Athabasca River basins is updated each weekday and is available in the Provincial Reservoir Storage Summary.
Questions
Background information on the Water Supply Outlook is available in Frequently Asked Questions
Media Contact:
Communications Division, Alberta Environment
Phone: (780) 427-6267
