Water Supply Outlook November 2014

Updated: November 7, 2014

Recorded natural runoff volumes from March to September 2014

Natural runoff volumes from March to September 2014 were generally much above average in the Milk River basin, above average to much above average in the Oldman River basin, slightly below average to much above average in the Bow River basin, much above average in the Red Deer basin, and slightly below average to slightly above average in the North Saskatchewan River basin.

Natural runoff volumes recorded from March to September 2014 for rivers in the Milk River basin ranked between 64 to 74 in 99 years of record. Rankings are from lowest to highest. The rivers in the Oldman River basin ranked between 83 to 87 in 99 years of record. The rivers in the Bow River basin ranked between 26 to 85 in 99 years of record. The rivers in the Red Deer River basin ranked between 83 to 85 in 99 years of record. The rivers in the North Saskatchewan River basin ranked between 30 to 60 in 100 years of record.

The average difference between all forecasts from the beginning of the year through August and the preliminary recorded natural volumes were 44% for the Milk River basin, 26% for the Oldman River basin, 15% for the Bow River basin, 19% for the Red Deer River basin, and 8% for the North Saskatchewan River basin.

The forecast accuracy between the first month’s forecast and the May forecast saw, on average, an increase in accuracy from 37% to 20% for the average difference between recorded and forecasted volumes.

Milk River basin
  • March - September recorded volumes were much above average for Milk River at Western Crossing, Milk River at Milk River, and Milk River at Eastern Crossing.
  • The recorded volumes were much higher than was forecasted during the January to May water supply outlook. The average difference between forecasted and recorded volumes was 44%.
Oldman River basin
  • March - September recorded volumes were above average for the Belly and Waterton Rivers and much above average for the St. Mary and Oldman Rivers.
  • The recorded volumes were higher than was forecasted during the January to May water supply outlook. The average difference between forecasted and recorded volumes was 26%.
Bow River basin
  • March - September recorded volumes were slightly below average to slightly above average with the exception of the Elbow and Highwood Rivers, which were much above average.
  • The recorded volumes were generally higher than was forecasted, except for the Spray River near Banff. The difference between forecast and recorded volumes were on average 15%.
Red Deer River basin
  • March - September recorded volumes were much above average for the Red Deer River at Dickson Dam and the city of Red Deer.
  • The recorded volumes were higher than was forecasted, and on average the difference between the forecasted and recorded volumes was 19%.
North Saskatchewan River basin
  • March - September recorded volumes were average for Lake Abraham (Bighorn Reservoir), slightly below average for the Brazeau Reservoir, and slightly above average for the North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton.
  • The recorded volumes were higher than forecast for Lake Abraham and the North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton, and lower than forecast for the Brazeau Reservoir. On average, the difference between the forecasted and recorded volumes was 8%.• The recorded volumes were higher than forecast for Lake Abraham and the North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton, and lower than forecast for the Brazeau Reservoir. On average, the difference between the forecasted and recorded volumes was 8%.

Note: The recorded 2014 natural flow volumes are preliminary and subject to change.

Check our Forecaster's Comments for updated information regarding runoff conditions.

Precipitation

Contoured maps of precipitation amounts and as a percent of normal for the past month and for current and recent seasons are available here. Maps of precipitation amounts for the most recent day, week and month to date are available here.

Soil Moisture

Alberta Agriculture models soil moisture for non-mountainous, agricultural areas of Alberta. Modelled soil moisture compared to average as of October 31, 2014 is available here.

Long Lead Precipitation Outlooks

Environment Canada (issued on October 31, 2014): temperature and precipitation for the November 2014 through January 2015 period:

  • above normal precipitation for the southern half of the province and normal precipitation for the northern half of the province.
  • above normal temperatures for southern Alberta and extreme northern Alberta. Normal temperatures for the rest of the province.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (issued on October 16, 2014): equal chance of above normal, normal and below normal temperatures for the province except for extreme southern Alberta, which is above normal. There is an equal chance of above normal, normal and below normal precipitation for the province except for extreme southern Alberta, which is below normal for the November 2014 through January 2015 period.

Climate indicators: The NOAA reported on November 6, 2014 there is a 58% chance of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which is favored to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

Note that forecasting weather for such a long time period into the future is very difficult, and so the historical accuracy has been variable, dependent on location and time period, and is often low, more so for precipitation than temperature. Environment Canada provides an assessment of their forecast method's historical accuracy on their website.

Reservoir storage

Water storage volumes in the major irrigation and hydroelectric reservoirs of the Milk, Oldman, Bow, Red Deer North Saskatchewan, and Athabasca River basins is updated each weekday and is available in the Provincial Reservoir Storage Summary.

Questions

Background information on the Water Supply Outlook is available in Frequently Asked Questions

Media Contact:
Communications Division, Alberta Environment
Phone: (780) 427-8636