Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

September 2008

August 2008 Precipitation

Precipitation in most of Alberta varied from much below normal to normal with the exceptions of the areas in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche, Grande Prairie-Grande Cache, Red Deer-Drumheller, and along the Saskatchewan border south of Lloydminster, which recorded above to much above normal precipitation. The mountains and foothills of the province generally recorded much below normal to normal precipitation except for the headwaters of the Bow River, which recorded above normal precipitation (Figure 1). August precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 2.

 

Summer Precipitation (May 1, 2008 to August 31, 2008)

Precipitation in central and northern Alberta varied between much below normal and normal with the exception of the northwestern corner of Alberta, which recorded above to much above normal precipitation. Southern Alberta recorded above to much above normal precipitation except for the Cypress Hills area south of Medicine Hat, which recorded normal precipitation. The mountains and foothills of Alberta recorded above to much above normal precipitation except for an area between Banff and Jasper, which recorded below normal to normal precipitation (Figure 3). Summer precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 4.

 

Winter Precipitation (November 1, 2007 to April 30, 2008)

Most of the province recorded below normal to normal precipitation, with the exceptions of the Cold Lake-Lloydminster and Cypress Hills areas, which recorded above normal precipitation, and most southern and central plains areas, which recorded much below normal precipitation. The mountain and foothills of the province generally recorded below normal to normal precipitation (Figure 5). Winter precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 6.


 

Fall Precipitation (September 1 to October 31, 2007)

Below to much below normal precipitation was recorded in most of the province (Figure 7). Above to much above normal precipitation was recorded in many mountain and foothill locations of the Banff-Pincher Creek area, in the Milk River-Cypress Hills area, and in the far north of the province that includes areas north of High Level and the Fort Chipewyan area. Some areas of the Upper Smoky and Athabasca River basins recorded normal to above normal precipitation. Fall precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 8.
 

A map of fall plains soil moisture in the province as estimated by Alberta Agriculture can be seen here .
 

Long-Lead Precipitation Outlook

Environment Canada's long-lead forecast for Alberta issued on September 1, 2008 for the September through November 2008 period is for below normal temperatures in the province, and normal precipitation for most of the northern and central plains and below normal for the rest of the province. Canada's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html.


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) long-lead forecasts issued on August 21, 2008 for September through to the end of November 2008 is for equal chances of below normal, normal, or above normal precipitation and temperatures for southern Alberta. Below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures are forecasted for the December through February period for southern Alberta. On August 21, 2008 NOAA reports that a consensus of the forecasts maintains ENSO neutral conditions, with NINO 3.4 SST Anomalies slightly below zero into the beginning of next year. NOAA's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/.
 


For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca