Water Supply Outlook September 2009
Updated: September 9, 2009
Mountain runoff recorded natural volumes for March through August 2009
Volumes in all areas have increased since August 1, due to improved precipitation (see Precipitation section below), except for the Milk River at Eastern Crossing where volume decreased slightly. Volumes for the year are low, ranking 15 to 20th lowest in 91 years of record in most areas, with North Saskatchewan River basins ranking among the 3 lowest on record and the Bow River at Banff ranking second lowest. A year in review report will be published in mid November.
Milk River basin- March - August recorded volumes below to much below average except Western Crossing below average
- March - August recorded volumes below to much below average
- March - August recorded volumes much below average, except below to much below average for the Kananaskis River and Spray Reservoir, below average for the Highwood River and Lake Minnewanka, and below average to average for the Elbow River.
- March - August recorded volumes below to much below average
- March - August recorded volumes much below average, lowest on record (41 years) for Brazeau Reservoir, 3rd lowest in 91 years for Edmonton, and second lowest in 30 years for Bighorn Reservoir
Recorded 2009 volumes are preliminary and subject to change.
Check our Forecaster's Comments for updated information regarding runoff conditions.
Precipitation
Contoured maps of precipitation amounts and as a percent of normal for the past month and for current and recent seasons are available here. Maps of precipitation amounts for the most recent day, week and month to date are available here.
Soil Moisture
Alberta Agriculture models soil moisture for non-mountainous, agricultural areas of Alberta. Modelled soil moisture compared to average as of September 3, 2009 is available here.
Long Lead Precipitation Outlooks
Environment Canada (issued on September 1, 2009): temperature and precipitation for the September through November 2009 period:
- above normal precipitation
- above normal temperatures, except normal in the northwestern corner of Alberta
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (issued on August 20, 2009): below normal precipitation for southwestern Alberta and an even chance of below normal, normal or above normal precipitation for southestern Alberta, and an even chance of below normal, normal or above normal temperatures in southern Alberta, for September through November 2009.
Climate indicators: The NOAA reported on August 6, 2009 that El Nino conditions are expected to strengthen and last through the coming winter.
Note that forecasting weather for such a long time period into the future is very difficult, and so the historical accuracy has been variable, dependent on location and time period, and is often low, more so for precipitation than temperature. Environment Canada provides an assessment of their forecast method's historical accuracy on their website.
Reservoir storage
Water storage volumes in the major irrigation and hydroelectric reservoirs of the Milk, Oldman, Bow, Red Deer North Saskatchewan, and Athabasca River basins is updated each weekday and is available in the Provincial Reservoir Storage Summary.
Questions
Background information on the Water Supply Outlook is available in Frequently Asked Questions
Media Contact:
Communications Division, Alberta Environment
Phone: (780) 427-6267
