Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2005

Table 4b Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2005 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for April 1 to September 30, 2005 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March 2005 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 1,020,000* 97 84-113 77 38/91 113** 80/91
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 169,000* 94 81-128 72 40/91 74** 20/91
Spray River near Banff 334,000* 94 82-119 77 34/91 95** 33/91
Kananaskis River 376,000* 94 84-114 75 38/91 116** 73/91
Bow River at Calgary 2,265,000* 96 80-117 73 41/91 109** 69/91
Elbow River 176,000* 84 70-115 61 38/91 117** 76/91
Highwood River 486,000* 80 65-112 55 35/91 106** 64/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2005 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** - Recorded 2005 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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