Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2006

Table 5b Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2006 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for April 1 to September 30, 2006 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March 2006 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 946,000* 90 83-103 78 25/91 114** 83/91
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 156,000* 87 74-111 69 32/91 93** 47/91
Spray River near Banff 329,000* 92 81-114 77 32/91 108** 68/91
Kananaskis River 376,000* 94 88-115 78 38/91 110** 66/91
Bow River at Calgary 2,157,000* 92 79-109 74 31/91 109** 67/91
Elbow River 188,000* 90 71-128 64 45/91 126** 82/91
Highwood River 538,000* 88 68-121 55 40/91 90** 57/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2006 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** - Recorded 2006 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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