Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2007

March 2007 Precipitation

Much above normal precipitation was recorded in mountain and foothill areas and most of the province north of Grande Prairie-Slave Lake, while the remainder of the province generally recorded much below normal precipitation (Figure 1). Exceptions are below normal precipitation in Fort Chipewyan, Cold Lake and the Sundre area, and above to much above normal precipitation in the Calgary-Pincher Creek area and in a small area south and west of Lac La Biche. March precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 2.
 


Winter Precipitation (November 1, 2006 to March 31, 2007)

Above to much above normal precipitation has been recorded on the northwest side of the province (High Level-Grande Cache), in most mountain areas and in the Cold Lake-Fort McMurray region, while generally normal to above normal precipitation has been recorded in the foothills. Plains areas in the southern half of the province generally received below to much below normal precipitation, while most plains areas in the northern half generally recorded below normal to normal precipitation, except in Fort Chipewyan where much below normal precipitation was recorded (Figure 3). Winter precipitation totals are illustrated in (Figure 4).


 

Fall Precipitation (September 1 to October 31, 2006)

Below to much below normal precipitation was recorded in most of the northern one-third of the province, the Medicine Hat-Brooks-Lethbridge area, Drumheller and in most mountain and foothill regions. Generally above to much above normal precipitation was recorded in the plains and some foothills areas of Central Alberta, and in the Cypress Hills (Figure 5). Fall precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 6.


Alberta Agriculture models soil moisture for non-mountainous, agricultural areas of Alberta. Soil moisture at the end of October 2006 is illustrated in Figure 7, which shows almost all of the southern half of the province ranges from normal to extremely high and most of the agricultural areas in northwestern Alberta range from below normal to extremely low.
 

Long-Lead Precipitation Outlook

Environment Canada's long-lead forecast for Alberta issued on April 1, 2007 for the April through June 2007 period is for below normal precipitation for the southern half of Alberta and in the High Level region, and normal precipitation for the remainder of the province. Below normal temperatures are forecast for the majority of the province for the next three months, except normal temperatures in the southeastern plains region. Environment Canada's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html.


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) long-lead forecasts issued on March 15, 2007 for April through to the end of June 2007 is for an equal chance of above normal, normal, or below normal precipitation for southern Alberta and above normal temperatures for the southeastern plains. The NOAA reported March 8, 2007 that a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña conditions is possible during the next 2-3 months. NOAA's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/.
 


For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca