Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

April 2015

Water Supply Forecast as of April 1, 2015 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for April 1 to September 30, 2015 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March 2015 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 889,000* 90 86-95 83 15/99 123** 97/99
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 145,000* 85 74-100 64 23/99 102** 58/99
Spray River near Banff 360,000* 103 90-110 89 49/99 105** 80/99
Kananaskis River 357,000* 96 87-108 79 32/99 190** 99/99
Bow River at Calgary 2,112,000* 95 89-100 85 31/99 123** 89/99
Elbow River 170,000* 88 75-111 63 49/99 125** 94/99
Highwood River 413,000* 77 60-94 44 27/99 244** 92/99

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2015 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - Recorded 2015 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the March to September 30 period from 1981-2009

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca