Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2002

Bow River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

Average natural runoff volumes are forecast for the March to September 2002 period in the Bow River basin and above-average runoff volumes in the Kananaskis, Elbow and Highwood River basins (Table 4a). Current forecasts in the basin range from 95 to 120 % of average. The August 1 forecasts did not change significantly from last month's forecast (1 to 6 %). Forecasts in the upper headwaters of the Bow River continue to track well despite below-normal to normal precipitation in June and July. Current runoff volume forecasts for this year are 23 to 61 % higher than recorded runoff volumes last summer.

The first five months of the forecast period have been completed, with the March-July 2002 recorded runoff volumes being average to above-average, ranging from 95 to 124 % of average. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2002 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 4b.

Current forecasted values for the March to September period for the Bow River at Calgary would rank 47th lowest in 84-years of record (1912-95).

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