Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2003

North Saskatchewan River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

Natural runoff volumes for the March to September 2003 period are forecast to be below-average to average for the North Saskatchewan River basin, ranging from 84 to 99% of average (Table 6a). The August 1 forecasts for March through September at Edmonton and the Brazeau Reservoir are 18% and 13% higher, respectively, than volumes recorded over the same time period last year, while the Bighorn Reservoir forecast is 4% lower than last year's volume. Current forecasted volumes are higher than those recorded in 2001 by 16 to 23%. Current forecasted values for the March to September period for the North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton would rank 35th lowest in 84-years of record (1912-95).

The first five months of the forecast period have been completed, with March-July 2003 recorded runoff volumes ranging from 88 to 102% of average. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2003 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 6b.

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