Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2004

Table 4b Water Supply Forecast as of August 1, 2004 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for August 1 to September 30, 2004 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-July 2004 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 251,000* 90 79-109 70 25/91 79** 12/91
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 41,900* 98 79-155 61 55/91 99** 52/91
Spray River near Banff 74,200* 88 81-109 67 29/91 88** 29/91
Kananaskis River 90,000* 86 79-111 69 21/91 80** 19/91
Bow River at Calgary 546,000* 87 73-110 62 28/91 84** 22/91
Elbow River 36,800* 76 68-103 54 28/91 78** 30/91
Highwood River 61,100* 70 49-127 33 38/91 58** 16/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** - Recorded 2004 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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