Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

February 2002

Table 5 Water Supply Forecast as of February 1, 2002 - Red Deer River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Actual March-September 2001 Volume as a % of Average
Red Deer River at Dickson Dam 753,000 80 62-105 41 28/84 62
Red Deer River at Red Deer 894,000 68 54-110 37 24/84 52

Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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