Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

February 2004

Table 3 - Water Supply Forecast as of February 1, 2004 - Oldman River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30, 2004
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-September 2003 Volume as a % of Average
St. Mary River 607,000* 82 58-120 45 22/91 71
Belly River 198,000 81 67-114 55 21/91 81
Waterton River 502,000 83 59-120 48 23/91 63
Oldman River near Brocket 913,000 84 64-129 45 31/91 70
Oldman River at Lethbridge 2,298,000 77 55-118 42 24/91 64

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

* - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share
Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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