Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

January 2004

Table 1 - Water Supply Forecast as of January 1, 2004 - Milk River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30, 2004
Locations Volume
in dam3
Volume as a % of Median Probable Range as a % of Median Reasonable Minimum as % of Median Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-September 2003
Volume as a
% of Median
Milk River at
Western Crossing
29,098 54 31-102 24 21/70* 62
Milk River
at Milk River
48,300 51 30-97 22 21/91 64
Milk River at
Eastern Crossing
60,400 52 31-100 23 22/91 70

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

* Western Crossing data is from 1931-2001

Median is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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