Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

July 2003

Red Deer River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

Natural runoff volumes for the March 1 to September 30, 2003 period are forecast to be above-average for the Red Deer River basin, ranging from 113 to 124% of average (Table 5a). The current forecasts are lower than last month's forecast for Red Deer (by 5%) and the same as last month's at Dickson Dam. The current forecasted volumes for the March to September 2003 period for the Red Deer River basin are approximately double the volumes recorded over the same time period last year and in 2001. Current forecasted volumes would rank 27th highest in 84-years of record (1912-95) at Red Deer.

The first four months of the forecast period have been completed, with March-June 2003 recorded runoff volumes ranging from 126 to 141% of average. Runoff volume at the Dickson Dam was the thirteenth-highest on record (since 1912) for the March-June period. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March through September 2003 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 5b.

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