Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

July 2004

North Saskatchewan River Basin - Water Supply Forecasts

As of July 1, 2004, natural runoff volumes for the March to September 2004 period are forecast to be below-average at the Bighorn Reservoir, and much-below-average for the Brazeau Reservoir and the North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton (Table 6a). Current forecasts in the basin range from 72 to 91% of average. Current forecasted values for the March to September period for the North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton would rank 13th lowest in 91-years of record (1912-2001). The July 1 volume forecasts are similar to last month's at the Bighorn Reservoir, 2% higher at the Brazeau Reservoir and 1% higher at Edmonton. Forecasts are 5 to 15% lower than volumes recorded over the same time period last year.

The first four months of the forecast period have been completed, with March-June 2004 recorded runoff volumes at Lake Abraham being below-average to average, while both Edmonton and the Brazeau Reservoir recorded runoff which was seventh lowest on record, much below average. Recorded volume data is preliminary, and is subject to change. The remaining volume forecast, which is the March to September 2004 forecast minus the recorded volume to date, is available in Table 6b. Below to much-below-average runoff is forecasted for the July through September 2004 period.

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