Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

July 2008

Table 4b Water Supply Forecast as of July 1, 2008 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for July 1 to September 30, 2008 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-June 2008 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 495,000* 85 78-99 75 13/91 82** 18/91
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 94,200* 107 97-130 79 59/91 137** 84/91
Spray River near Banff 176,000* 100 93-130 77 50/91 106** 51/91
Kananaskis River 205,000* 100 90-120 75 51/91 111** 60/91
Bow River at Calgary 1,104,000* 90 77-115 67 31/91 115** 67/91
Elbow River 101,000* 111 98-155 75 65/91 158** 82/91
Highwood River 215,000* 109 90-154 60 62/91 149** 76/91

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2008 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** - Recorded 2008 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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