Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

July 2009

Water Supply Forecast as of July 1, 2009 - Milk River Basin (Natural Flows)


Volume Forecast for July 1 to September 30, 2009 Year to date
Locations Volume
in dam3 		Volume as a
% of Median 		Probable Range as a % of Median Potential Minimum as
% of Median 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-June 2009 Volume as a % of Median Ranking (lowest to highest)
Milk River at
Western Crossing 		3,400* 65 43-164 24 30/72** 64*** 24/70*
Milk River
at Milk River 		7,320* 67 44-107 30 25/90 47*** 19/91
Milk River at
Eastern Crossing 		8,040* 62 34-105 24 27/91 43*** 21/91

* NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2009 forecast minus the recorded volume to date


** Western Crossing data is from 1931-2001

*** Recorded 2009 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Median is calculated for period 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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